The Greater Toronto Area housing market
moved into a more traditional summer pattern in July. Sales activity
eased from June, which is typical for this time of year, but sellers
pulled back much more sharply than buyers. That distinction is
important. July was not simply a story of weakening demand. It was
increasingly a story of shrinking supply meeting still-active demand,
resulting in gradually tightening market conditions.
"July was not simply a story of weakening demand. It was increasingly a story of shrinking supply meeting still-active demand."
Freehold Market
Freehold
properties continue to demonstrate strong price resilience compared to
the broader market. Detached homes led transactions with 2,789 sales
(46.5% of total market activity). Equity-rich move-up buyers remain key
drivers here, though many are delaying listing their current homes until
they find their next purchase, creating tight local inventory and
increased competition for well-priced homes.
Condominium & Pipeline Trends
Condo
sales held up relatively well with 1,564 transactions (-1.5% YoY) at an
average price of $636,323, as improved affordability attracted buyers.
Meanwhile, a major long-term story is unfolding in future supply:
combined pre-construction and under-construction inventory dropped 37%
YoY to 48,710 units (down 62% from its 2022 peak), with zero new project
launches in Q2.
Fall Market Outlook
On
a seasonally adjusted basis, sales actually increased month-over-month
while listings dropped. Heading into September and October, constrained
inventory alongside steady buyer participation could shift negotiating
leverage back toward sellers, particularly for desirable freehold
properties.
"The
most important question may no longer simply be whether buyers will
return. The increasingly important question is whether sellers will
return too."
